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In 20, your diarist was ridiculed by the bears for arguing that a medium term crash was unlikely, and the more credible scenario was a gradual unwinding in property values.During that period, there was a sustained easing in real estate prices across most capital cities as the eastern states laboured under the weight of a surging currency, courtesy of the resources boom. The Reserve Bank, mindful that resource project investment was about to collapse - as the construction phase of the boom came to an end - began cutting interest rates.At some stage during the next two decades, either interest rates will rise or a recession will occur.Under either scenario, you can only imagine the impact of rising defaults on our banking system. Last week, in spirited defence of his former boss's economic credentials, he had this to say: While he's absolutely correct, the fundamental difference between sovereign and private debt appears to have eluded him.

The property market collapses that swept the US, then the UK and Europe rippled through credit markets and ultimately brought global banking and the world economy to its knees.That it hasn't occurred has given ammunition for those who believe it never will.But that's a false argument that merely breeds complacency.It was a deliberate attempt to fuel an eastern states construction boom, to help take up the employment slack from the looming collapse in mining construction.As Sydney and Melbourne property values once again began to soar from already ridiculous levels, the central bank stood by and watched, clinging to the mantra that its mandate simply was to maintain full employment and contain inflation.

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