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In the last few days, he has called for “common sense to prevail” and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insists that Moscow remains committed to the Minsk agreement.

If tensions rise further this autumn, it could prompt a new debate over international military support for Poroshenko’s government, which has claimed it may need to impose martial law and mobilise reserve troops soon.

Previously, Moscow had hoped that sustained economic, military and political pressure could lead to significant loss of support within Ukraine for its pro-Western Kiev government.

That scenario has not fully come to pass yet, however, and it is unclear what the risk tolerance of the Russian leadership now is, especially given that Putin is up for re-election in March 2018 for a new six year term as President.

As international diplomatic activity ramps up, the crisis is on the brink of spiralling out of control again, with significant effects many miles from the streets of Kiev.

In the immediate-term, and despite recent rhetoric, it is unlikely there will be any decisive actions in advance of the G20 summit in China next month.During the first stage of the unrest, Crimea was annexed by the Russian Federation after a Russian military intervention, and an internationally criticized (based on UN resolution 68/262) Crimean referendum.Protests in Donetsk and Luhansk regions (oblasts) escalated into an armed pro-Russian separatist insurgency.And the Pentagon has poured cold water on the idea that Moscow might be preparing an imminent invasion, asserting that the build-up of Russian troops on the border is part of an annual military exercise.Moving into the autumn, whether tensions escalate or subside will probably depend most upon the political calculus of Russia.




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